1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:18,900 *36C3 preroll music* 2 00:00:18,900 --> 00:00:24,582 Herald: Now we come to Bernhard Stoevesandt. "Science for future?". Your 3 00:00:24,582 --> 00:00:26,712 stage - your talk. Here we go. 4 00:00:26,712 --> 00:00:31,342 *Applause* 5 00:00:31,342 --> 00:00:36,100 Bernhad Stoevesandt: Thank you very much. OK. OK. This is not just my talk. This 6 00:00:36,100 --> 00:00:40,160 talk has a history. I have a coauthor, Martin Dörenkämper, who is a colleague of 7 00:00:40,160 --> 00:00:45,560 mine who could not come here, but - so, I will give this talk by myself, but we 8 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:51,830 worked together over the year on this talk because this talk has a history. And it's 9 00:00:51,830 --> 00:00:57,270 a bit of the history of Scientists for Future, which is an association of 10 00:00:57,270 --> 00:01:03,680 scientists that evolved this year, basically with the movement of those 11 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:09,299 students and pupils of Fridays for Future. And there were questions, you know, that 12 00:01:09,299 --> 00:01:16,460 they took to the street and said, hey, we want a future. We want that things change. 13 00:01:16,460 --> 00:01:21,820 And they demanded for politics to change. And this did not directly happen, but it 14 00:01:21,820 --> 00:01:26,719 was questioned, so some - well - professional politicians said, well, they 15 00:01:26,719 --> 00:01:31,469 should leave it to the professionals. And that's the point where actually a lot of 16 00:01:31,469 --> 00:01:36,560 scientists and a lot of scientists I know, all where really mad at this because 17 00:01:36,560 --> 00:01:43,270 they've been doing science and research for so many years. I mean, I don't know if 18 00:01:43,270 --> 00:01:50,159 you saw the presentations before, how much effort is being put into this, into this 19 00:01:50,159 --> 00:01:57,659 research to make better and better, better models. And what I will show you, this 20 00:01:57,659 --> 00:02:03,299 presentation is about the results of the outcome of this and what this means and 21 00:02:03,299 --> 00:02:08,220 still nothing changes. So they write papers, they write reports and, well, 22 00:02:08,220 --> 00:02:13,580 nothing happens. And so the only thing we could say was basically, hey, they are 23 00:02:13,580 --> 00:02:20,130 right. Things need to change. And that's why we got together and formed this 24 00:02:20,130 --> 00:02:27,130 association. So there's a charta on this, which says basically what we do is we go 25 00:02:27,130 --> 00:02:32,110 out and we try to inform people on the research, on the state of the art of the 26 00:02:32,110 --> 00:02:37,670 research and how things are currently. And that's why I'm here. So that's exactly 27 00:02:37,670 --> 00:02:43,130 what I'm doing here. So we go out to wherever and you can come to us and ask 28 00:02:43,130 --> 00:02:51,610 for presentations, for discussions to get informed on this topic, on what this 29 00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:58,820 climate change issue actually means. And this is the disclaimer now, I can tell you 30 00:02:58,820 --> 00:03:09,580 this is not a good mood talk, okay? So, yeah. Because the topic is very serious. 31 00:03:09,580 --> 00:03:14,320 So it's a bit different than I usually do it, in the end it will look a little bit 32 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:18,510 better than in the beginning, but nevertheless. So where are we currently? 33 00:03:18,510 --> 00:03:25,820 So this is the current graph. This is all not research by myself. This is mainly 34 00:03:25,820 --> 00:03:32,960 from IPCC reports, and this is from the report from last year on the 1.5 degree 35 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:39,620 report, which was made - basically done, or, put together because in the Paris 36 00:03:39,620 --> 00:03:48,400 agreement in 2015, it was said, well, we, the world, or, the governments of the 37 00:03:48,400 --> 00:03:56,520 world, want to keep the climate change - the temperature change - to well below 2 38 00:03:56,520 --> 00:04:00,900 degrees, if possible, to 1.5 degrees, and the question was, hey, is this actually 39 00:04:00,900 --> 00:04:07,010 possible? Can we make that? What do we need to do to do this? And so there has 40 00:04:07,010 --> 00:04:12,459 been a lot of questions about this and a lot of research. A huge number of 41 00:04:12,459 --> 00:04:17,750 publications came out on this topic: "Hey, what does it mean to have a 1.5 degrees 42 00:04:17,750 --> 00:04:22,729 warmer earth?" "What does it mean to have a 2 degrees warmer earth?" and "Is this 43 00:04:22,729 --> 00:04:29,740 actually possible to limit climate change to these temperatures?" And this is the 44 00:04:29,740 --> 00:04:34,760 current state. I really love this graph because it contains a lot of different 45 00:04:34,760 --> 00:04:39,710 things. So what we are talking about. So we have a pre-industrial period that we 46 00:04:39,710 --> 00:04:47,099 use as a reference. So that's the period from 1850 to 1900 here. This is the 47 00:04:47,099 --> 00:04:51,840 reference period where we say, OK, this was pre-industrial temperature and 48 00:04:51,840 --> 00:04:57,689 everything afterwards, the changes from that are all referring to this. So 1.5 49 00:04:57,689 --> 00:05:05,409 degrees or so would be the difference from this period. And then, what climate does, 50 00:05:05,409 --> 00:05:10,430 it's not always constant. So every year, sometimes it's a bit warmer and sometimes 51 00:05:10,430 --> 00:05:14,839 a bit colder. So what you need to do is you need to average. This is quite 52 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:22,279 important, because, for example, there is this year of - where is it? here - 1998, 53 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:27,689 there was a very warm year. And afterwards, for a long period, there 54 00:05:27,689 --> 00:05:32,430 weren't so many warm years. And then there were some people saying: "Oh, yeah, look, 55 00:05:32,430 --> 00:05:37,331 the temperature does not change anymore, so everything's fine now". And this, of 56 00:05:37,331 --> 00:05:42,569 course, isn't true, because you have to look at average periods. So the red line, 57 00:05:42,569 --> 00:05:48,490 this is the so-called floating average. So you always average with the years and this 58 00:05:48,490 --> 00:05:54,469 gives us about the current temperature change. So this would be like a typical 59 00:05:54,469 --> 00:05:59,810 climate period with like 20 years. You usually look at 20 years. But the problem 60 00:05:59,810 --> 00:06:04,439 we have currently is, that the change was so drastic, that looking for 20 years, 61 00:06:04,439 --> 00:06:10,379 then you would always have to go far back to periods when well, there was a big 62 00:06:10,379 --> 00:06:18,240 difference to today. So, the last changes in this report were taken from this 2006 63 00:06:18,240 --> 00:06:25,289 to 2015 period. And the extrapolation from this was basically, that in 2017 we 64 00:06:25,289 --> 00:06:32,089 probably reached a 1 degree increase in temperature on a global scale. That's not 65 00:06:32,089 --> 00:06:37,060 always the same, and in different areas it might be warmer and in different it's 66 00:06:37,060 --> 00:06:46,019 colder, but that's the global increase. So. So this is where we are currently. So 67 00:06:46,019 --> 00:06:54,629 we have an increase from 280 parts per million in CO2 to about 410 ppm. This is 68 00:06:54,629 --> 00:06:59,729 changing. Its not constant, it's a bit going up and down but it's about 410 69 00:06:59,729 --> 00:07:05,150 in 2019. We have a strong increase in temperature globally, but the biggest 70 00:07:05,150 --> 00:07:11,640 increase is actually in the winter. It's in the Arctic. And there's a current 71 00:07:11,640 --> 00:07:19,550 antrophogenic CO2 surplus of about 40 gigatons per year. So 40 gigatons - what's 72 00:07:19,550 --> 00:07:23,759 that? That was actually current, this is already gone because we are now a bit 73 00:07:23,759 --> 00:07:35,430 higher than that. But this was the average period from 2011 to 2017. OK. Now I go 74 00:07:35,430 --> 00:07:41,680 directly into this IPCC report from last year. That's 2018. In chapter 2, there's 75 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:47,639 this table. I love this table. This table contains a lot of climate science because 76 00:07:47,639 --> 00:07:56,109 it goes into how much actually can we further emit to reach which temperature 77 00:07:56,109 --> 00:08:01,680 change. So this would be here the 1.5 degrees Celsius, this would be the 2 78 00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:07,279 degrees Celsius. And then you have probabilities: how likely you can avoid 79 00:08:07,279 --> 00:08:14,059 this, or is it going to come? So if you want to avoid it with a two sigma, that is 80 00:08:14,059 --> 00:08:27,499 like a 67% probability to go over 1.5 degrees, we have 420 gigatons to emit 81 00:08:27,499 --> 00:08:33,461 further additionally into the atmosphere. 420. As you remember, it's 40 gigatons per 82 00:08:33,461 --> 00:08:45,090 year. And this was I think from last year. So this refers to basically 2017. So it's 83 00:08:45,090 --> 00:08:51,630 already two years gone since then. And it has not decreased, but increased actually. 84 00:08:51,630 --> 00:08:55,680 And then there is a lot of difference, you know, if you go for a 50 percent chance, 85 00:08:55,680 --> 00:09:00,320 you can you can say, ok, it's a bit more we can emit. And if he goes, well, we just 86 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:05,630 want to have a one third chance, then we actually would have double the amount we 87 00:09:05,630 --> 00:09:13,110 could emit. For 2 degrees Celsius. This is far more, so it's more than 1000 gigatons 88 00:09:13,110 --> 00:09:20,320 of CO2 equivalents to emit. Now, there are, of course, a lot of uncertainties, 89 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:25,030 all kinds of uncertainties that go with that. And one is, for example, the so- 90 00:09:25,030 --> 00:09:35,770 called Earth System Feedback. The earth itself responds to this emission and also 91 00:09:35,770 --> 00:09:43,760 emits CO2 and also methane. And this has an also a long term impact. And then there 92 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:50,810 are further uncertainties. And these are I mean, this has been also part in the 93 00:09:50,810 --> 00:09:55,840 previous talks that, of course, climate models do have uncertainties. 94 00:09:55,840 --> 00:10:03,210 Nevertheless, if we take this into account and say, ok, we want to avoid 1.5 degrees 95 00:10:03,210 --> 00:10:10,500 Celsius increase in temperature with a 2/3 probability. That they call "likely" in 96 00:10:10,500 --> 00:10:16,370 this report. So it's likely that we are not exceeding 1.5 degrees. We have 420 97 00:10:16,370 --> 00:10:23,340 gigatons surplus CO2 to emit into the atmosphere in total. 100 gigatons will be 98 00:10:23,340 --> 00:10:31,480 more or less gobbled up by the earth response. This was in the report. Current 99 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:36,500 research shows that this is likely a bit too conservative. So it's probably more, 100 00:10:36,500 --> 00:10:45,290 but, well. OK. So our emission is about 40 gigatons, so the planned CO2 emissions by 101 00:10:45,290 --> 00:10:53,810 coal power plants that are running, was at that period 200 gigatons CO2. So they are 102 00:10:53,810 --> 00:11:01,470 built. They are running. 200 gigatons by that. And then we have 100 to 150 further 103 00:11:01,470 --> 00:11:08,200 gigatons for our planned coal power plants and those under construction. As we count 104 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:17,180 this together, we have already exceeded the 420 gigatons CO2. And this is, of 105 00:11:17,180 --> 00:11:20,320 course, one reason why these coal power plants have to be shut down. But they're, 106 00:11:20,320 --> 00:11:26,760 of course, not the only source. They are only one source of CO2 emissions we have 107 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:35,480 in the atmosphere. And to make this clear, what this means, this is what I go into 108 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:44,310 now. What does this mean? This difference from 1.5 degree to 2 degree, and that's 109 00:11:44,310 --> 00:11:52,060 been a lot of research on that. OK? Now, the first one is, for example, on the 110 00:11:52,060 --> 00:11:56,500 Arctic. I mean, there's been a lot of talks about ice bears and so on. But of 111 00:11:56,500 --> 00:12:03,100 course, this is not the only thing to care about. It is quite crucial that there is 112 00:12:03,100 --> 00:12:08,680 ice there also because the ice, we heard this before in the previous talks, that 113 00:12:08,680 --> 00:12:15,440 the ice reflects the sun and the less reflection is there, the more warmth is 114 00:12:15,440 --> 00:12:22,160 being taken up by the earth again. So we have like a feedback system there. Also, 115 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:26,600 of course, because of all the... It's not just the ice bear. There's like a whole 116 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:33,040 biosphere there. And this biosphere has to somehow survive. Now, the likeliness of an 117 00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:41,400 ice free Arctic is this graph here of comparing 1.5 degrees - this is this one, 118 00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:44,610 or these two studies, these are two studies here, one with the dotted line and 119 00:12:44,610 --> 00:12:50,720 another one with the full line - and 2 degrees. And this is how likely it is in a 120 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:57,790 certain period of time that this happens. And so you can see, if we consider again 121 00:12:57,790 --> 00:13:05,890 that it's likely, it's about 45 years it takes for a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase 122 00:13:05,890 --> 00:13:11,960 that we have an ice free Arctic. So this is actually possible with this increase, 123 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:19,490 but it's like once every 45 years. If we go for a 2 degree increase, this one is 124 00:13:19,490 --> 00:13:25,910 every 10, or, even with the other study, it's more like once every five years that 125 00:13:25,910 --> 00:13:29,450 this is happening and this is quite frequent. And this, of course, causes 126 00:13:29,450 --> 00:13:35,810 quite some impact on everything that lives there. Now, this is ice and Arctic. 127 00:13:35,810 --> 00:13:39,230 There's not so many people living in the Arctic. So there's a lot of further 128 00:13:39,230 --> 00:13:45,180 studies that have been done. And this, for example, for Africa I will only ... 129 00:13:45,180 --> 00:13:52,500 because of limited time. I can do this talk for many hours, actually. I will only 130 00:13:52,500 --> 00:13:58,400 go onto this example here. Extreme heat with record temperatures over close to 50 131 00:13:58,400 --> 00:14:06,860 degrees and actually even increasing that. That has been there in 2009, 2010 in the 132 00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:11,350 months from December to February in Africa. These are temperatures where 133 00:14:11,350 --> 00:14:20,930 people cannot be outside anymore at these temperatures. It's just too hot. And then 134 00:14:20,930 --> 00:14:24,800 it's showing these curves and these are probability density functions. So these 135 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:31,930 curves show how often, like, each of these balconies, I don't know, boxes here are 136 00:14:31,930 --> 00:14:37,490 showing: How often does this happen? And so here we have "current", the current 137 00:14:37,490 --> 00:14:43,450 status, that is the temperature from 2006 to 2015. That's what they call current. So 138 00:14:43,450 --> 00:14:48,930 there is already this increase in temperature under these conditions. This 139 00:14:48,930 --> 00:14:57,540 happens every well, maybe twice every 100 years. If we go for 1.5 degrees increase, 140 00:14:57,540 --> 00:15:02,590 that's the blue line we can see: This is going to happen every more or less third 141 00:15:02,590 --> 00:15:10,490 year. If we go for 2 degrees, this is going to happen even more often. So this 142 00:15:10,490 --> 00:15:16,070 is for people living there, it's getting hard to live there. It's just the 143 00:15:16,070 --> 00:15:24,720 temperature, only that. If we go for, for example, for Australia as an example, that 144 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:30,990 we have the same, it's always these curves, here are extreme warm 145 00:15:30,990 --> 00:15:36,990 temperatures. Well, that's very easy. But in Australia, what's also important there, 146 00:15:36,990 --> 00:15:44,990 it's the temperature of the water, because of the corals that live there. And hot 147 00:15:44,990 --> 00:15:51,470 water leads to coral bleaching. So basically, the corals die. And this all, 148 00:15:51,470 --> 00:15:56,900 of course, as we've seen, the temperature is not every year the same. But there was 149 00:15:56,900 --> 00:16:02,400 this hot summer and an extreme coral bleaching here. Temperature situation here 150 00:16:02,400 --> 00:16:10,400 in the summer, in 2012, 2013. And how often does this happen? And we can already 151 00:16:10,400 --> 00:16:15,000 see here: This would be the natural. So this would be the pre-industrial curve 152 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:21,220 here, where this very warm temperatures hardly ever happen. While we can see here 153 00:16:21,220 --> 00:16:25,740 already: This would be every third year currently, it would be every second year 154 00:16:25,740 --> 00:16:32,320 in a 1.5 degrees scenario and probably two of three years in a 2 degrees scenario. 155 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:36,660 And this means, well, what this means I would go into later. This is an example 156 00:16:36,660 --> 00:16:42,430 for Europe. well, how often things happen. I don't know if you do, but I always 157 00:16:42,430 --> 00:16:48,930 remember that one, because I well, I was a lot outside during that period. There was 158 00:16:48,930 --> 00:16:54,720 a very warm summer we had in 2003. And a lot of people died of that because of the 159 00:16:54,720 --> 00:17:02,460 heat. I remember being in Cologne at the time and laying outside at 40 degrees and 160 00:17:02,460 --> 00:17:08,429 I was ill and so I had 40 degrees. So outside 40 degrees was very warm. And so 161 00:17:08,429 --> 00:17:15,000 naturally, this can happen. It could happen like once every hundred years. 162 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:20,149 Currently we have like a situation, well, this would be like every 4th year. And 163 00:17:20,149 --> 00:17:27,720 this increases then to more than 59% of all the years at 2 degrees Celsius. So 164 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:34,891 we're gonna get hot summers. This is the prediction of this study here. Well, what 165 00:17:34,891 --> 00:17:43,320 does this mean? Well, now I go back to the IPCC reports and the IPCC reports are very 166 00:17:43,320 --> 00:17:50,360 diplomatic always. And so they have "reasons for concern". And we are all very 167 00:17:50,360 --> 00:17:55,680 concerned. This sounds very nice, but of course, there's some background to this. 168 00:17:55,680 --> 00:18:01,790 So they have. And in the summary of this IPCC report from 2018 are there five 169 00:18:01,790 --> 00:18:07,930 reasons for concern. That's one: unique and threatened systems like corals, or 170 00:18:07,930 --> 00:18:13,270 extreme weather events. And you can see that does make quite a difference from 171 00:18:13,270 --> 00:18:19,830 now. And going to warmer temperatures, up here we have the 2 degrees. So you can see 172 00:18:19,830 --> 00:18:25,480 between 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees: That does make quite a difference. Distribution 173 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:34,400 of impacts. Basically, this means that those, who suffer most, have contributed 174 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:41,370 less. And that's, of course, bad because those who contributed most, well, don't 175 00:18:41,370 --> 00:18:47,740 suffer as much. And then they won't change. And that's a problem. That's why 176 00:18:47,740 --> 00:18:54,530 they're concerned on this one. Global aggregate impacts is basically money 177 00:18:54,530 --> 00:19:03,920 impact. So how much does this cost in the end to to cope with the outcome of this? 178 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:12,660 And well, it costs billions of dollars in the end to have a difference between 1.5 179 00:19:12,660 --> 00:19:19,480 and 2 degrees. Every year, just to cope with the impacts. And then we have large 180 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:24,470 scale singular events that could be something like de-icing of Greenland or 181 00:19:24,470 --> 00:19:29,020 something like that. Well, when that's gone, it's just a singular event because 182 00:19:29,020 --> 00:19:36,755 it's gone. This is very abstract. So they get a bit closer to that. So warm water 183 00:19:36,755 --> 00:19:42,070 corals is basically they are having already a problem. Well, I will show this 184 00:19:42,070 --> 00:19:47,960 later. Well, they expect about 90 percent will die off at 1.5 degrees. Well, they 185 00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:54,220 will die out at 2 degrees. Most likely. Certain. And this is of course, this is 186 00:19:54,220 --> 00:20:01,140 a... Well, it's important for nourishment and for people who live from the sea, from 187 00:20:01,140 --> 00:20:07,750 whatever they fished out of the sea, because corals that's like the childhood 188 00:20:07,750 --> 00:20:17,029 bed of a lot of fish. So we do get quite an impact in the end on fishery. This is 189 00:20:17,029 --> 00:20:22,280 why this is so red. Mangroves also get an impact on that, there is about the same 190 00:20:22,280 --> 00:20:28,620 story. So a lot of small fish grow up there. Well, the Arctic region is getting 191 00:20:28,620 --> 00:20:34,520 increasing problems with the ice. Well, these are all kind. I will go into this 192 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:42,240 later. Coastal flooding will increase from 1.5 to 2 degrees. This is, well, flooding 193 00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:49,590 and rivers and so on. Well, and we'll get some more heat related morbidity. Now, 194 00:20:49,590 --> 00:20:59,110 there's been a new report this year on land use. And this has been even more into 195 00:20:59,110 --> 00:21:06,870 this. Now, different scale. Please watch that. So the scale here, it's going up to 196 00:21:06,870 --> 00:21:15,370 five degrees. And if you look for that, yeah, so it's a bit different. So the 197 00:21:15,370 --> 00:21:21,559 lower ones, 1.5 and 2 degrees are in there. But problems they see is a dryland 198 00:21:21,559 --> 00:21:28,429 scarcity and water scarcity in drylands. So that's desertification, a lot 199 00:21:28,429 --> 00:21:35,360 of that. Soil erosion, which is related to that, vegetation loss is also related to 200 00:21:35,360 --> 00:21:44,240 that. Yeah, I will come to this later. The wildfire damage, we can see that already 201 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:51,020 today. I mean, in the news every time. Now it's Australia and Chile. But before it 202 00:21:51,020 --> 00:21:57,360 was was more California and so on. So this will go on. This is no coincidence that 203 00:21:57,360 --> 00:22:04,390 this is happening. We have permafrost degradation. We have a tropical crop yield 204 00:22:04,390 --> 00:22:09,800 decline. Crop yield is of course... That hurts because well, this leads, of course, 205 00:22:09,800 --> 00:22:14,570 in the end to food instabilities. And we can see, it does make quite a difference 206 00:22:14,570 --> 00:22:19,930 already between 1.5 and 2 degrees. But of course, it can get worse. And they... Also 207 00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:25,010 they are more specific on that, what they mean with this. For example, in wildfire 208 00:22:25,010 --> 00:22:32,720 damage, they expect an increase in fire weather season currently, over 50% 209 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:40,710 increase in the Mediterranean area if it gets above 2 degrees and well, if we go to 210 00:22:40,710 --> 00:22:47,230 4 or 5 degrees, well, they expect, well, hundreds of million at least, or over 100 211 00:22:47,230 --> 00:22:53,610 million people additionally exposed. In terms of food supply instabilities: Well, 212 00:22:53,610 --> 00:22:59,510 what we already see is, well, we have like spikes in the food price. This is not so 213 00:22:59,510 --> 00:23:04,160 important for us usually. But of course, for people in the world that don't have 214 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:12,370 much money and we still have almost it's not quite 1 billion people in the world, 215 00:23:12,370 --> 00:23:19,490 that live off less than 2$ a day. For such people, this is, of course, quite 216 00:23:19,490 --> 00:23:28,160 important. If we go closer to 2 degrees, they do expect periodic food shocks across 217 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:33,390 regions. So basically that. There will be situations where there will be no food 218 00:23:33,390 --> 00:23:41,110 available anymore. If we go up to four or five degrees, this would lead to sustained 219 00:23:41,110 --> 00:23:53,320 food supply distribution problems on a global scale. So this depends on of what 220 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:58,059 kind of scenario we are calculating. I will go into this later. One additional 221 00:23:58,059 --> 00:24:07,250 thing is also to think off on that, we are not only talking about the temperature. 222 00:24:07,250 --> 00:24:12,931 Also, the water of the oceans take up the CO2, they take up a lot of the CO2, that we 223 00:24:12,931 --> 00:24:22,990 blow into the air. And this leads to an acidification. And so the pH value of the 224 00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:30,890 oceans, they decrease and this has an impact on a lot of animals that build up 225 00:24:30,890 --> 00:24:38,870 calcium carbonate, so shells basically. So all kinds of bi-valves, all kinds of like 226 00:24:38,870 --> 00:24:45,790 cancers and all that, they depend on building up this calcium carbonate. And if 227 00:24:45,790 --> 00:24:49,380 they're not able to do this anymore, of course, they don't grow anymore. And they 228 00:24:49,380 --> 00:24:57,380 are pretty much in the beginning of this food supply, a food chain and the oceans. 229 00:24:57,380 --> 00:25:05,160 Now, I was reading this 2018 report and somewhere there on page 223, I found them 230 00:25:05,160 --> 00:25:11,300 this year, where they basically say, ok, we do have this impact and there is this 231 00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:17,880 aragonite saturation, which is well, basically that's the point, where this 232 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:26,010 build up for specific animals is not possible anymore, at this saturation 233 00:25:26,010 --> 00:25:31,302 point, because the chemical reaction does not work anymore. And this depends on the 234 00:25:31,302 --> 00:25:35,170 temperature, this depends on the pressure. And the higher the pressure is, the 235 00:25:35,170 --> 00:25:40,350 earlier this point is reached. Also, the colder the temperature is. And so this is 236 00:25:40,350 --> 00:25:45,000 what you can see on the right hand side. They investigated this mainly from the 237 00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:54,500 polar regions on. And so that they... at this point, where this point will reach the 238 00:25:54,500 --> 00:26:01,030 surface of the ocean from 2030 onwards, so that they're all these animals on the 239 00:26:01,030 --> 00:26:06,390 surface of the ocean are not building in the polar regions, will have problems to 240 00:26:06,390 --> 00:26:11,520 build up, actually, their shells in. This has two different impacts, of course, one 241 00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:17,790 impact, they don't grow anymore. This has a big issue on the food chain in the 242 00:26:17,790 --> 00:26:23,840 oceans. The second impact is actually that these... This was a one off the carbon 243 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:30,810 sinks. They took CO2 and with calcium, they build up these shells and they die 244 00:26:30,810 --> 00:26:36,690 off at some point and they sink to the ground. And well the CO2 is gone. Well, if 245 00:26:36,690 --> 00:26:41,240 this is not happening anymore, of course, this type of carbon sink does not work 246 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:49,170 anymore. Okay. Now, I've talked about... These are further, I will go skip through 247 00:26:49,170 --> 00:26:55,629 this quickly. These are all kinds of things that happen. So on this 1.5 degree 248 00:26:55,629 --> 00:27:01,730 report, they compared for a lot of regions, what will happen. So for 1.5 249 00:27:01,730 --> 00:27:10,740 degree warming or less, of 1.5 to 2 degrees and 2 to 3 degrees. And there's all kinds 250 00:27:10,740 --> 00:27:15,080 of things. This is the big table in this report in chapter three. Read these 251 00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:18,430 reports. Please read these reports. They're good! And they're actually 252 00:27:18,430 --> 00:27:22,120 scientifically good. I mean, this in terms of if you do it. If you do science, it's 253 00:27:22,120 --> 00:27:28,020 really really good. Because they have so many so much literature and so many cross 254 00:27:28,020 --> 00:27:34,770 references and how they do it to be very sure to say, OK, this is what we can say 255 00:27:34,770 --> 00:27:43,080 with this certainty. This is very, very good science. I think at least. OK. So I 256 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:48,530 will not go into all of this. But it has to all kinds of regions severe impacts 257 00:27:48,530 --> 00:27:55,970 like south east, for South East Asia, for example, they have, you know, this risk of 258 00:27:55,970 --> 00:28:01,590 increased flooding and they have increased precipitation events and, yes. And, well, 259 00:28:01,590 --> 00:28:05,320 I think the most significant of this is the significant risk of crop yield 260 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:13,610 reductions, which is avoided, if we stay below 1.5 degrees. If we are not staying 261 00:28:13,610 --> 00:28:22,309 below 1.5 degrees, they estimate 1/3 decline in per capita per crop production 262 00:28:22,309 --> 00:28:32,790 per year, one third less food. That's not good! And if we go even higher, well, this 263 00:28:32,790 --> 00:28:40,190 is getting worse. For small islands, well, there's actually the small islands are 264 00:28:40,190 --> 00:28:44,030 well-known, of course, you know, there the sea level is rising, so they have a 265 00:28:44,030 --> 00:28:48,870 problem. And actually the main problem they have is not that just the water is 266 00:28:48,870 --> 00:28:56,630 going over the island, but that the salty water is rising and is intruding the fresh 267 00:28:56,630 --> 00:29:04,210 water reserves they have. So they get a problem with fresh water. And well, this 268 00:29:04,210 --> 00:29:10,910 is already a problem for them for 1.5 degrees, for two degrees, it's like a very 269 00:29:10,910 --> 00:29:16,430 severe problem. And that's why they are pushing pushing so much for the 1.5 270 00:29:16,430 --> 00:29:22,160 degrees change maximum. In the Mediterranean, this is very close to where 271 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:28,410 we are currently. So they expect a reduction of run-off water, so this is 272 00:29:28,410 --> 00:29:36,380 rivers, of about 9 percent, it's very likely. Well there's range given, most of 273 00:29:36,380 --> 00:29:42,450 the time they have this. So there is already a risk of water deficits at 1.5 274 00:29:42,450 --> 00:29:49,991 degrees increase in temperature. If we increase further, we reach about... at up 275 00:29:49,991 --> 00:29:59,840 to 2 degrees, we have about 17% less water in the rivers. This is, of course, not 276 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:06,280 good. I mean, I mean, especially I mean, okay, in Germany, for example, there's a 277 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:15,010 lot of food coming from Spain. And well, they do already have a problem with their 278 00:30:15,010 --> 00:30:24,631 crops, with water for their crops. And this is getting worse. West Africa and 279 00:30:24,631 --> 00:30:31,299 Sahel. Well, there is a prediction. Well, there's a prediction of, well, less 280 00:30:31,299 --> 00:30:43,210 suitable land for maize production by 1.5 degrees already by 40% less land. 40%. 281 00:30:43,210 --> 00:30:51,010 That's a lot. It's not the region where people already have a huge surplus in food 282 00:30:51,010 --> 00:30:59,120 everyday. So there is an increase in risk for undernutrition already. For 1.5 283 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:06,330 degrees in. If we increase, well, this just getting absurd in a way, it says higher 284 00:31:06,330 --> 00:31:12,840 risk undernutrition, of course, because it's going to get worse. Apart from this, 285 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:21,120 that it's too hot to go outside anyways. Well, for southern Africa, it's similar. 286 00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:26,010 It's not as drastic. So there is already the high risk for undernutrition in 287 00:31:26,010 --> 00:31:31,330 communities dependent on dryland especially. So savanna areas which are 288 00:31:31,330 --> 00:31:38,250 rather dry. And this is getting worse again. Well, in the tropics, also, there 289 00:31:38,250 --> 00:31:43,000 is a risk to tropical crop yields. We already heard that on the other side. On 290 00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:47,860 the other side, it's also there, these extreme heat waves they're going to face. 291 00:31:47,860 --> 00:31:57,460 So this is like this was a table and there was a lot of, well, details of what they 292 00:31:57,460 --> 00:32:03,260 expect from 1.5 to 2 degrees. Now what scientists, scientists are a bit strange 293 00:32:03,260 --> 00:32:07,939 sometimes because they are also then doing their science and they look at different 294 00:32:07,939 --> 00:32:13,600 things. And one thing they are actually now worried about, and this is, actually 295 00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:20,080 it is worrisome, very worrisome, is that actually, well, climate change has been 296 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:27,850 always there, because that's been like a cycle and this the so-called interglacial 297 00:32:27,850 --> 00:32:32,720 cycle the earth has been going through. This has to do with the position to the 298 00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:38,200 sun and a lot of feedback systems that kick in. If you cool the earth, you have 299 00:32:38,200 --> 00:32:43,210 more ice build up, then you have more sun being reflected again. You have less 300 00:32:43,210 --> 00:32:47,620 energy that stays on the surface of the earth and then it gets colder and colder 301 00:32:47,620 --> 00:32:51,829 and colder up to a certain point where this changes again and goes back. And this 302 00:32:51,829 --> 00:32:58,780 has been going on for hundreds of years. And the point is, now we've left the 303 00:32:58,780 --> 00:33:05,559 cycle. And this is the part that's shown up here, that basically we are now on a 304 00:33:05,559 --> 00:33:09,880 completely different trajectory. And that's the trajectory that is we're 305 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:14,289 heating this up and the Earth is responding. And it's also heating itself 306 00:33:14,289 --> 00:33:21,080 up. And so we are on the path and it's not quite clear. So they built this. They show 307 00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:28,460 this, this graph here, there is actually the possibility that the earth will go on 308 00:33:28,460 --> 00:33:36,190 this path to heat itself up without us even. And this is called tipping points. 309 00:33:36,190 --> 00:33:40,710 So there are several things that happen there. That is, for example, the melting 310 00:33:40,710 --> 00:33:48,059 or thawing of the permafrost. There is methane hydrates in the ocean storage that 311 00:33:48,059 --> 00:33:56,360 might be triggered to evolve. There will be a reduction of CO2 intake in the 312 00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:01,580 oceans. Currently, a lot of CO2 is taken into the oceans, but this will get less 313 00:34:01,580 --> 00:34:10,089 and less. the more saturation comes in there. We have a die-off of rainforests. 314 00:34:10,089 --> 00:34:15,310 So. Well, last summer we've seen they have a lot of rainforest burning in the 315 00:34:15,310 --> 00:34:20,990 Amazons. But this will also happen by the increase of temperature without human 316 00:34:20,990 --> 00:34:28,039 impact. And in this paper here by Steffen and some others, they said they estimate 317 00:34:28,039 --> 00:34:39,720 about a rainforest reduction of up to 40% by an increase of of up to 1.5 degrees 318 00:34:39,720 --> 00:34:47,750 anyways. So we gonna lose rainforest, a lot of rainforest already like that. We 319 00:34:47,750 --> 00:34:53,170 have a die-off in the boreal forest. This was this summer in Siberia. Well, they 320 00:34:53,170 --> 00:35:00,160 just don't die off. They get burned. And there are other reasons why they die. And 321 00:35:00,160 --> 00:35:05,920 so there's a lot of CO2 going to be emitted from forests that are where carbon 322 00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:12,130 starts currently into the atmosphere. We have a reduction of ice and snow. So 323 00:35:12,130 --> 00:35:18,690 there's less reflection of the sun into the atmosphere again. And we have a 324 00:35:18,690 --> 00:35:22,620 reduction of ice warming, so we have an increase in sea level. And this whole 325 00:35:22,620 --> 00:35:33,450 thing, this is like a communicating system. And one thing triggered, will 326 00:35:33,450 --> 00:35:42,580 trigger something else. This is sometimes goes by circulations, also by ocean 327 00:35:42,580 --> 00:35:48,960 circulation and so on. So one thing can trigger the next thing and this might 328 00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:56,190 trigger the next thing and this will go on. And if this happens, at a certain 329 00:35:56,190 --> 00:36:03,500 time, at a certain intensity, then we will not have as a human beings with the 330 00:36:03,500 --> 00:36:10,320 current technology and technology we have, we will not be able to stop that. And 331 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:15,230 that's what they are worried about, so these climate scientists, that we should 332 00:36:15,230 --> 00:36:24,520 not get these tipping points to go too strong. They are already...This is 333 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:30,390 already... These are processes that can be already seen, but... Well, currently they 334 00:36:30,390 --> 00:36:37,200 are on a level where it's, well, it's bad. There was actually 4 weeks ago this paper 335 00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:43,280 published in Nature Climate Change, where they said, well, we might be wrong with 336 00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:48,960 our estimation here with this 100 gigatons, because these tipping points are 337 00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:54,490 worse than we thought. So we are actually further there more on the upper limits of 338 00:36:54,490 --> 00:37:06,320 the bounds where we thought it would be. Yes. So these are very worrisome 339 00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:16,010 situations. Now, this should trigger us to do something about it, and that's actually 340 00:37:16,010 --> 00:37:23,760 the point. So things need to be done. But up to now, well, things have not been 341 00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:30,980 done. But this is like they see it, the climate, greenhouse gas emissions curves 342 00:37:30,980 --> 00:37:39,320 from 1970 to 2010. And we can see that not only that the curve has been increasing 343 00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:47,609 more or less the whole period, but also the increase has increased from 2000 on. 344 00:37:47,609 --> 00:37:59,540 And the main increase here is by CO2. The other gas is here methane. There is a... 345 00:37:59,540 --> 00:38:07,690 nitrogen gases up here. And well there are CO2 from well, agriculture, forestry and 346 00:38:07,690 --> 00:38:12,890 land use, this is here. They are more or less constant. Sometimes there are spikes 347 00:38:12,890 --> 00:38:19,280 like this. Most likely this is like rainforest burning. The only year in the 348 00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:23,040 recent years where there has been a decrease also in the CO2 emissions was in 349 00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:32,270 the economic crisis in 2008. Well, there actually was a decrease by 4 percent. 350 00:38:32,270 --> 00:38:40,840 Yeah. Now, nevertheless, the scientists went on and said: OK, let's calculate, how 351 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:46,360 can we manage to get to 1.5 degrees and there are different scenarios. Some say, 352 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:53,030 OK, let's go to get to 1.5 degrees. Some say, OK, maybe we need to get to a higher 353 00:38:53,030 --> 00:38:58,480 temperature and later on change that again to get to 1.5 degrees. So there are all 354 00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:08,660 kinds of scenarios that you can calculate. Now, if we say, we use this CDR, this is 355 00:39:08,660 --> 00:39:15,270 carbon dioxide removal. We don't have that. And we say, we use the exponential 356 00:39:15,270 --> 00:39:23,260 curve each year. We do reduce this the same percentage of our emissions and we 357 00:39:23,260 --> 00:39:31,349 want to get to 1.5 degrees. And this was the curve from 2018. So we should have 358 00:39:31,349 --> 00:39:38,460 started this year to reduce our CO2 emission by 18% each year globally, 18%, 359 00:39:38,460 --> 00:39:47,910 if we want to reach 1.5 degrees. If we want to be, we reach 2 degrees, it's still 360 00:39:47,910 --> 00:39:57,400 5 percent each year. 5 percent. If we do this for Germany, by this, and I think 361 00:39:57,400 --> 00:40:00,500 this is the most important figure. It's not as important like politicians always 362 00:40:00,500 --> 00:40:06,020 say, are yeah, by this year, we want to reduce our emissions by 50 percent or 363 00:40:06,020 --> 00:40:10,349 something like that. But this does not tell you what happens but 2030, what 364 00:40:10,349 --> 00:40:18,370 happens until 2030? Right? So it's very important to keep in mind that it's likely 365 00:40:18,370 --> 00:40:24,200 we have a budget and this is actually from a paper, it's global carbon budgets. They 366 00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:31,870 say they publish each year, how much budget do we have left to to emit? And so 367 00:40:31,870 --> 00:40:37,300 if we take this budget and say, OK, this is our budget. How are we gonna spend to 368 00:40:37,300 --> 00:40:42,760 spend going to spend our carbon budget? And this is something that we should ask 369 00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:47,110 all the politicians. What do you think is your budget? Why do you think this is your 370 00:40:47,110 --> 00:40:54,750 budget? And there's been actually an article by by climate scientists Stefan 371 00:40:54,750 --> 00:40:58,850 Ramsdorf in the Spiegel. Where he said, OK, let's estimate we have more than seven 372 00:40:58,850 --> 00:41:04,210 point about seven point three gigatons CO2 overall budget to Germany. And we could 373 00:41:04,210 --> 00:41:10,089 say if we want to reach one point five degrees, this would mean we continue our 374 00:41:10,089 --> 00:41:14,910 share of emissions, which would be in Germany, which is like double the average 375 00:41:14,910 --> 00:41:20,491 of the rest of the world. And we'd say, OK, we have the right to blow out in the 376 00:41:20,491 --> 00:41:26,270 air twice as much as the average person in the world. Then we still would have 1.5 377 00:41:26,270 --> 00:41:31,510 gigatons CO2 in Germany to emit. And how are we gonna do that? That's 378 00:41:31,510 --> 00:41:36,850 the question. Are we do we have this in mind? Of course we can calculate this down 379 00:41:36,850 --> 00:41:44,730 to each person in Germany. So we end up with about 40 tons per person. So each of 380 00:41:44,730 --> 00:41:51,030 us can also think of this. I have 40 now, 90 tons here. Sorry, 90 tons. That is to 381 00:41:51,030 --> 00:42:01,319 emit. How am I gonna spend this until the end of my life? Now, if we go back to this 382 00:42:01,319 --> 00:42:08,530 report, then we have different scenarios. And as you can see, there are different 383 00:42:08,530 --> 00:42:15,200 ways of doing that. And these are different economic scenarios. So and you 384 00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:19,070 can see already, that most of these scenarios do have negative emissions at 385 00:42:19,070 --> 00:42:25,980 some points. Actually, all of them have. Some of them include carbon capture and 386 00:42:25,980 --> 00:42:32,310 storage here shown as BECCS. And depending on what kind of economic 387 00:42:32,310 --> 00:42:40,619 scenario you go for, this is more or less. And here it's like up to about 20 gigatons 388 00:42:40,619 --> 00:42:48,190 per year to be stored in the ground. The green part here, agriculture, forestry and 389 00:42:48,190 --> 00:42:54,109 land use and other land use. This also, of course, you can reduce CO2 by planting 390 00:42:54,109 --> 00:43:00,200 trees. This is actually a very efficient way of doing that. But of course, the land 391 00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:07,839 land area is limited. And this is also true for other things. And of course, the 392 00:43:07,839 --> 00:43:13,140 land area we can use is decreasing due to climate change. It could always should 393 00:43:13,140 --> 00:43:22,580 always keep this in mind. Now. The base of all these scenarios, they put this again 394 00:43:22,580 --> 00:43:27,930 into a table and and puts and I put some pictures to that. So they say: If we want 395 00:43:27,930 --> 00:43:32,450 to reach to 1.5 degrees, what we have to do, we need a rapid and 396 00:43:32,450 --> 00:43:40,200 profound near-term decarbonisation of our energy supply. So basically, we have to be 397 00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:46,380 very, very quick and change our energy supply. This has to be. That's the first 398 00:43:46,380 --> 00:43:51,590 part. The second part, we need greater mitigation efforts and the demand side. So 399 00:43:51,590 --> 00:44:02,680 we have to use less and get smaller with things. Third part is well we do have to 400 00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:13,730 do this within the next 10 years, so we cannot wait. This is very, very urgent. 401 00:44:13,730 --> 00:44:18,540 Well, this is actually a table that looks like this is a bit, sorry for that. So the 402 00:44:18,540 --> 00:44:22,849 main thing is that the additional reductions come from CO2 emissions because 403 00:44:22,849 --> 00:44:28,579 the other greenhouse gas house gases are already included in the two degrees 404 00:44:28,579 --> 00:44:37,400 scenarios. We need to invest differently, so investment patterns have to change 405 00:44:37,400 --> 00:44:44,410 strongly. What we also, they are the best options actually for one point five degree 406 00:44:44,410 --> 00:44:52,660 scenarios are the ones that go with the sustainable development, because if people 407 00:44:52,660 --> 00:44:59,270 don't have food to eat, they don't have the chance to take care of the climate 408 00:44:59,270 --> 00:45:07,200 anymore, because first they are trying to survive. So we do have to also care about 409 00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:16,230 how people can live on this planet. This helps protecting the climate. Well, then 410 00:45:16,230 --> 00:45:22,300 they say, OK, we probably have to think of climate, the carbon dioxide removal 411 00:45:22,300 --> 00:45:26,129 somehow at the mit summit of the century. What's the myth of the centuries? So this 412 00:45:26,129 --> 00:45:31,050 has to be implemented now. And what we also have to do is, we have to switch from 413 00:45:31,050 --> 00:45:38,240 fossil fuels to electricity and the end user sector. Now CDR, carbon dioxide 414 00:45:38,240 --> 00:45:44,310 dioxide removal, I will say about that. This is, of course, agriculture, forestry 415 00:45:44,310 --> 00:45:50,750 and land use. That's very easy planting trees. Then there is BECK. So you use by 416 00:45:50,750 --> 00:45:58,670 basically biomass to produce some some gas and then you capture the CO2 from burning 417 00:45:58,670 --> 00:46:03,020 the gas and press this into ground and carbon capture and storage. Or what you can 418 00:46:03,020 --> 00:46:12,050 also do is use direct air capture as where you use it. These are like these machines. 419 00:46:12,050 --> 00:46:19,430 So they take CO2 from the air and then you have to store it. And you can see it's such 420 00:46:19,430 --> 00:46:27,109 a machine here. This was like a model at the time. So these are these have been 421 00:46:27,109 --> 00:46:33,599 already existing models. This. So basically this can be take 1000 tons of 422 00:46:33,599 --> 00:46:40,990 CO2 per year. So if we want to go for gigatons, then we would have to build 423 00:46:40,990 --> 00:46:48,510 millions of these in the end. Problem with that, it's a bit and discuss 424 00:46:48,510 --> 00:46:58,890 also in this report. So. So basically. So we have an energy usage of that by 425 00:46:58,890 --> 00:47:06,120 12.9 gigajoules per tonns CO2. So basically, if we want to use put down 15 426 00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:12,570 tons of 15 gigatonnes of CO2 per year by this, which was in one of the scenarios, we 427 00:47:12,570 --> 00:47:19,440 would need about 1/4 of the global energy supply only for atmospheric waste 428 00:47:19,440 --> 00:47:25,590 management. It's called like this. And the funny thing, this was like a professor. We 429 00:47:25,590 --> 00:47:29,680 had them in our university here in Oldenburg and he he gave this 430 00:47:29,680 --> 00:47:34,380 presentation. He said, yeah, this sounds so crazy, but the climate change will hurt 431 00:47:34,380 --> 00:47:44,960 you so much. This will be done. Yeah. And BECCs, that's a different way of doing 432 00:47:44,960 --> 00:47:51,040 that with a bio gas. So the thing is, if we want to have that at large scale, it 433 00:47:51,040 --> 00:48:00,000 requires huge amounts of land use to produce this amount of biogas. And the 434 00:48:00,000 --> 00:48:05,610 other drawback is, of course, that you do have to take care of your storage systems 435 00:48:05,610 --> 00:48:12,360 to avoid the gas to come out because. Well, CO2 is hard. Is has a higher density 436 00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:19,470 than than oxygen. And it goes so, it stays on the ground, if there is no wind. And if 437 00:48:19,470 --> 00:48:26,140 people live there, you don't have anything to breathe anymore. Now, there are, of 438 00:48:26,140 --> 00:48:30,800 course, different sectors. This for the EU, for example, where where the 439 00:48:30,800 --> 00:48:37,440 greenhouse gases come from. So the main parts are, of course, agriculture. There 440 00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:45,270 is transport and the energy industry and this. But there's also other industries. 441 00:48:45,270 --> 00:48:49,160 And it's important to keep in mind that this is not equal of all different 442 00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:55,880 countries. But it is also distributed to a dependent strongly on on the income of the 443 00:48:55,880 --> 00:49:00,590 people in the countries. So the high so- called high income countries here, they 444 00:49:00,590 --> 00:49:06,910 have the highest share in the CO2 emissions by the MID. So so-called 445 00:49:06,910 --> 00:49:15,230 emerging countries, they're almost at the same level now. While low income 446 00:49:15,230 --> 00:49:20,270 countries. They mainly have a CO2 emissions here from agricultural land land 447 00:49:20,270 --> 00:49:26,340 use. So the question is, can we make it to one point five degrees? That's a good 448 00:49:26,340 --> 00:49:33,050 question. So there have been a lot of studies like. Like for Germany and the EU. 449 00:49:33,050 --> 00:49:41,160 Either on like energy infrastructure, for example, or the whole system. There 450 00:49:41,160 --> 00:49:49,890 was one study from this year. They looked for 95 percent CO2 reduction by 2050. 451 00:49:49,890 --> 00:49:55,650 There was one study currently just read you released for the complete EU and 452 00:49:55,650 --> 00:50:05,500 greenhouse gas neutral EU by 2050. And so obviously, technically there is this 453 00:50:05,500 --> 00:50:12,240 assumption that this is possible. One main thing of that is, that we have to go far 454 00:50:12,240 --> 00:50:17,000 more efficient. And one thing and that is use electricity, because electricity is 455 00:50:17,000 --> 00:50:22,710 very efficient in many things. So currently the prime currently prime energy 456 00:50:22,710 --> 00:50:27,320 consumption in Germany is about two thousand 3200 terawatt hours 457 00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:31,640 in total. And the assumption for 2050 where they have this 458 00:50:31,640 --> 00:50:43,619 100 percent or 95 percent reduction would be 1300 terawatt hours or by the other 459 00:50:43,619 --> 00:50:49,620 study was even less than that. That depends a bit on the mixture they use. The 460 00:50:49,620 --> 00:50:54,760 reason for that is, for example, that the efficiency, for example, of battery driven 461 00:50:54,760 --> 00:51:01,360 cars is much higher than the one, those of combustion driven or other methods. So it 462 00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:09,050 really depends on which technology you put into use on how good you get. On the EU 463 00:51:09,050 --> 00:51:16,640 level, that looks a bit like this. So there demand and supply today. And this 464 00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:23,440 would be, so the reduction is not quite as large, but that would be as they still 465 00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:30,460 assume that we can reach this type of reduction if we want to. Nevertheless, 466 00:51:30,460 --> 00:51:40,060 they are not assuming 100 percent CO2 free. But they calculate with negative 467 00:51:40,060 --> 00:51:47,630 emissions by agriculture and forestry. So this is actually in these calculations and 468 00:51:47,630 --> 00:51:52,901 I really like the one by Robinius and so on. That's the lower one because they 469 00:51:52,901 --> 00:51:59,260 actually calculated completely with storage systems, with electricity grids 470 00:51:59,260 --> 00:52:02,960 and all that and how much needs to be invested into this. This is a very 471 00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:08,290 detailed study. Very, very good one. So this actually technically possible and 472 00:52:08,290 --> 00:52:12,780 they even calculated this. What happens in the so-called "Dunkelflaute". That's the 473 00:52:12,780 --> 00:52:18,690 German word for there is no wind and no sun in the winter for a period of time. 474 00:52:18,690 --> 00:52:24,420 And what happens? And this can actually. And that's what all they assume is that we 475 00:52:24,420 --> 00:52:29,589 do have a lot of storage for gas and we can use these curr, current strategic 476 00:52:29,589 --> 00:52:36,440 storage, as for gas in the future to store power to to gas, gas or gas that's won by 477 00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:44,490 electricity there as a backup. So basically, technically, this is possible. 478 00:52:44,490 --> 00:52:52,520 So to conclude, so the climate system is already at a critical stage. The prospect 479 00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:58,650 for a one point five degree warmer earth are already very bitter. And 480 00:52:58,650 --> 00:53:03,530 while the IPCC reports and all the reports, they are they are they. All of 481 00:53:03,530 --> 00:53:08,910 them go for it. If you would not exceed 2 degrees because we have this thing of the 482 00:53:08,910 --> 00:53:16,710 tipping points. And several reasons we already have this two degrees. Yeah, 483 00:53:16,710 --> 00:53:22,840 this carbon dioxide removal is presented. Basically, this is hard to avoid. But 484 00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:31,339 there are these critical things concerning carbon capture and storage. And whatever 485 00:53:31,339 --> 00:53:37,010 we need to do is we have to act fast, and that's the main thing. This has to be done 486 00:53:37,010 --> 00:53:49,550 very quickly. And I must say I'm very sorry. But our government's. Well, yes... 487 00:53:49,550 --> 00:53:58,990 *applause* 488 00:53:58,990 --> 00:54:04,230 So it is not a technical issue. It is a political one. Yes. 489 00:54:04,230 --> 00:54:05,200 Thank you. 490 00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:08,450 *applause* 491 00:54:08,450 --> 00:54:14,010 Herald: Bernhard, I thank you very much. We have eight minutes for questions. So we 492 00:54:14,010 --> 00:54:17,310 have a couple of microhones here and the whole. Please line up over there. We have 493 00:54:17,310 --> 00:54:22,490 those eight minutes. I'm sure there will be questions. The signal angel is 494 00:54:22,490 --> 00:54:29,450 signaling over there, that we have a question from the Internet. 495 00:54:29,450 --> 00:54:34,339 Question: Do you see nuclear power plants as a temporary solution to slow the 496 00:54:34,339 --> 00:54:40,410 emission of CO2 and we had quite some discussion in the Internet. There was 497 00:54:40,410 --> 00:54:45,599 number one answered. You need more than 10 years to build new nuclear power plants. 498 00:54:45,599 --> 00:54:50,790 And the response was, well, you could we get the shutdown once back on the power 499 00:54:50,790 --> 00:54:54,050 line. So is that the realistic scenario, in your view? 500 00:54:54,050 --> 00:54:59,150 Bernhard: Well, there is actually this this is a current discussion going on. And 501 00:54:59,150 --> 00:55:05,230 the issue with that is, it's not that easy to us to get old power plants back into 502 00:55:05,230 --> 00:55:11,010 running. Because, well, they have a certain type of lifetime. And if you want to put 503 00:55:11,010 --> 00:55:15,499 them back on into the into the system, then you somehow would have to exceed the 504 00:55:15,499 --> 00:55:21,690 lifetime. And that are some, of course, some security issues. And if you want to 505 00:55:21,690 --> 00:55:27,260 avoid them, then you have to put a lot of money and effort into getting them to run. 506 00:55:27,260 --> 00:55:32,740 And you need also a lot of time to do that. And so this the question is, would 507 00:55:32,740 --> 00:55:40,560 this be worth it? And I would say probably they are faster methods to do it. You 508 00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:46,410 could do it. There are, of course, the risk and I mean after Fukushima and 509 00:55:46,410 --> 00:55:54,420 Chernobyl. Basically, we we've all seen what the risks are. So and I would say 510 00:55:54,420 --> 00:56:00,030 it's probably not the best and fastest way to do it. There are other ways they could 511 00:56:00,030 --> 00:56:02,900 be worth doing it. Herald: OK. Then we're going to hop over 512 00:56:02,900 --> 00:56:06,839 to microphone number one. Mic 1: First, I want to thank you for 513 00:56:06,839 --> 00:56:11,590 your talk. It was very informative. And yeah, my question is as follows. There was 514 00:56:11,590 --> 00:56:17,380 a talk at the university where I study in Darmstadt one and a half years ago from a 515 00:56:17,380 --> 00:56:23,620 person who compared the IPCC predictions with what really happened with the real 516 00:56:23,620 --> 00:56:28,510 temperature increase and the damage which causes the climate change. And what she 517 00:56:28,510 --> 00:56:35,170 found out that the IPCC always, nearly always underestimated the effect of the 518 00:56:35,170 --> 00:56:41,329 temperature increase and what it causes. Have you ever heard of this criticism and 519 00:56:41,329 --> 00:56:49,351 do you think this is still the case? Bernhard: I hope not. The issue is, of 520 00:56:49,351 --> 00:56:59,290 course, that the IPCC reports, as always, very, very carefully taking decisions and 521 00:56:59,290 --> 00:57:04,630 is very carefully looking at this. And there are more conservative and the rather 522 00:57:04,630 --> 00:57:11,079 are lower than the than the actual temperatures in the end, probably because 523 00:57:11,079 --> 00:57:16,250 there is, of course, also a lot of pressure, political pressure on them. And 524 00:57:16,250 --> 00:57:21,940 so if they would predict something and they would over predict, then people would 525 00:57:21,940 --> 00:57:27,930 immediately say, come and say, hey, you are doing panicking and so on. And so 526 00:57:27,930 --> 00:57:36,130 that's why it is most likely that they try to be as accurate as possible. But they 527 00:57:36,130 --> 00:57:42,820 rather choose the lower the. The lower estimates. 528 00:57:42,820 --> 00:57:46,460 Question: Yeah. That was the serious thing as well. 529 00:57:46,460 --> 00:57:50,569 Bernhard: That's let's say it's a very it's a I mean in the end it's this summary 530 00:57:50,569 --> 00:57:56,550 for policymakers. I showed some slides from that. That is actually voted on by 531 00:57:56,550 --> 00:58:04,130 the buyer of governmental agents. So they bring this intergovernmental round of the 532 00:58:04,130 --> 00:58:11,110 U.N. They are a U.N. entity. And so and the governments actually say you have to 533 00:58:11,110 --> 00:58:17,460 approve this. And so that's why it's very, very diplomatic. And the terms of. So they 534 00:58:17,460 --> 00:58:22,880 are doing reasons for concern, you know. So it's I mean, people are concerned about 535 00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:26,410 all kinds of things. Thanks. Herald: All right, then we hope over to 536 00:58:26,410 --> 00:58:29,750 microphone two, please. Mic 2: OK. First, thank you for your 537 00:58:29,750 --> 00:58:36,141 talk. All good mood is gone now. And if it's mainly a political problem, do you 538 00:58:36,141 --> 00:58:41,940 have any idea how we can force politicians to make the right decisions now? Because 539 00:58:41,940 --> 00:58:45,960 what we are doing at the moment, like protesting and voting, doesn't seem to 540 00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:52,660 work. Berhard: Well, I *some applause* I think 541 00:58:52,660 --> 00:58:58,099 actually I'm very happy because I think protesting works, but it does not work in 542 00:58:58,099 --> 00:59:04,120 the same way that people who usually take it to the streets think it works. It puts 543 00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:08,609 a lot of pressure onto them. But it's one pressure on. They also have pressure from 544 00:59:08,609 --> 00:59:13,530 other sites, you know, and then they look at, you know, what are the my voters. And 545 00:59:13,530 --> 00:59:19,289 if their voters, are not the ones that are on the streets. Well, they might be not as 546 00:59:19,289 --> 00:59:26,319 important. And so I think the main thing is that needs to be done is to go out to 547 00:59:26,319 --> 00:59:32,470 the people. And thus going to the street is one way of doing that. And tell that, 548 00:59:32,470 --> 00:59:37,460 you know, and talk to the people and talk especially to those who are not there on 549 00:59:37,460 --> 00:59:42,369 the streets yet. Well, the potential voters of those who think, well, I don't 550 00:59:42,369 --> 00:59:46,930 have to care so much about because these are not my voters. And we just have to go 551 00:59:46,930 --> 00:59:52,470 out and talk. And I think this will put up the pressure together with taking it to 552 00:59:52,470 --> 00:59:57,780 the streets and protesting and doing whatever talking to politicians. I mean, 553 00:59:57,780 --> 01:00:02,779 we have a you know, Angela Merkel is our our chancellor in Germany, and she is a 554 01:00:02,779 --> 01:00:08,280 physicist. I mean, she knows I mean, this is she understands all this. You know, 555 01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:13,900 it's not that she doesn't know. It's just the pressure from the wrong side yet. 556 01:00:13,900 --> 01:00:18,180 Herald: All right. And we have time for one last question. Microphone three, 557 01:00:18,180 --> 01:00:20,960 please. Mic 3: Yes. Thank you very much for my 558 01:00:20,960 --> 01:00:25,380 side, for the informative talk. From the description of the talk, I was expecting 559 01:00:25,380 --> 01:00:30,520 more on the, it said something about the resilience, about climate skepticism. Yes. 560 01:00:30,520 --> 01:00:35,180 To be more resilient about their arguments. And I was in discussion with 561 01:00:35,180 --> 01:00:40,880 many other people, also climate skepticism and they sometimes said, they didn't 562 01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:44,970 criticize the entropy eugenic. Well, they didn't criticize the climate change at 563 01:00:44,970 --> 01:00:49,500 all. But the anthropogenic part of it. And what they said that there is like an 564 01:00:49,500 --> 01:00:54,020 increase of solar activity the last decades, which increases to the 565 01:00:54,020 --> 01:01:00,540 temperature. And that also like the diagram is like only from 1860. But if you 566 01:01:00,540 --> 01:01:06,390 consider like the last millennials, there have been higher values of CO2 in the 567 01:01:06,390 --> 01:01:10,701 atmosphere, but the temperature did not correlate. So how do you argue with this, 568 01:01:10,701 --> 01:01:15,680 this kind of argument? Berhard: Yes, that's a good one. Yeah. I 569 01:01:15,680 --> 01:01:25,430 didn't go into these these because they are the sometimes the easy ones. But the 570 01:01:25,430 --> 01:01:38,329 thing is that there are... I did this talk this way because it helps. If you go into. 571 01:01:38,329 --> 01:01:42,500 Climate, skeptics say this and they say a lot of different things. If I could do a 572 01:01:42,500 --> 01:01:50,210 whole talk on what climate skeptics say. If you do that, then in the end, people 573 01:01:50,210 --> 01:01:58,790 keep in mind, oh, yeah, this there is some skepticism on this. And this is, I did a 574 01:01:58,790 --> 01:02:05,660 lot of these things because by this now people can go out and say, OK, this is 575 01:02:05,660 --> 01:02:10,540 currently the state of the art of the research. I did not go into the climate 576 01:02:10,540 --> 01:02:15,480 skeptic detailed answers. Of course there are. I mean, I can make, for example, 577 01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:20,480 thunder radiation is already in the climate models, the changes in thunder 578 01:02:20,480 --> 01:02:25,420 radiations. The variations of the centuries before actually being 579 01:02:25,420 --> 01:02:31,050 precalculators in the climate models currently, because only if you're able to 580 01:02:31,050 --> 01:02:37,170 run if you if you're able to mimic that in climate models today, for today, all of 581 01:02:37,170 --> 01:02:42,900 the past. If you're able to do that, then you're able to do to run it for the 582 01:02:42,900 --> 01:02:48,280 future. And this is how climate models work. And so all this, all these 583 01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:53,620 variations are taking in. So I'm sorry. Herald: Oh, time is up. 584 01:02:53,620 --> 01:02:57,450 Bernhard: But we can talk about this also later on. I didn't get too much to the 585 01:02:57,450 --> 01:03:01,110 climate skeptics now. So much. Herald: All right. We don't have time for 586 01:03:01,110 --> 01:03:06,840 any more questions, Bernard. *Applause* That's your Applaus, thank you very much. 587 01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:13,240 *postroll music* 588 01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:33,830 Subtitles created by c3subtitles.de in the year 2020. Join, and help us!